The Syrian civil war has remained largely frozen since 2020, owing to a precarious balance of power between various factions with various degrees of support from Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the United States. Over the past few days, however, taking advantage of the ways that Iran and Hezbollah have been tied down by conflict with Israel while Russia has been distracted in Ukraine, the anti-government forces Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have seized Aleppo and intensified their campaign against the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad. While Assad has been responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and his downfall would be welcome, this development poses new dangers.

As we have explored before, the situation in Syria is complex, and the same events can look very different from different vantage points. In order to triangulate a reality informed by many views, we present here a perspective from participants in the revolution in western Syria alongside a report from anarchists in Rojava, the northeastern region of Syria.

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What’s Going on in Northwestern Syria?

This is a translation of a statement from the Cantine Syrienne de Montreuil, a project established by participants in the Syrian revolution in exile. You can read an interview with them here.

An alliance of various “rebel” groups (jihadists, Islamists, mercenaries under the tutelage of Turkey, and the like) has launched a major offensive in recent days to break the encirclement of the city of Idlib by the regime and its allies, and to respond to their murderous attacks. The operation has regained territorial control of Aleppo (Syria’s second largest city) and the surrounding area.

This offensive follows the destabilization of the Iranian regime and Hezbollah as a consequence of Israel’s attacks. Longtime allies of Assad, the Iranian-controlled militias have continued to pound rebel areas of Syria following October 7, 2023. Even after the beeper attack orchestrated by Israel in Lebanon, Hezbollah attacked Idlib (on September 20 and 23, 2024) before withdrawing some of its troops to Lebanon.

In a catastrophic humanitarian and economic context, the military operation by the “rebel” groups has forced hundreds of people to leave the areas that have recently fallen under their control (for fear of reprisals), but it has also enabled hundreds of displaced people to return to their lands and homes and see their families after long years of separation and harsh survival in the refugee camps.

Years ago, Aleppo was already liberated from the Assad regime and self-administered by its residents from 2012 to 2016 before falling back into the hands of the regime thanks to the support of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. After a brutal siege, a relentless bombardment in which 21,000 civilians were killed, and the nearly total destruction of the eastern part of the city, the fall of Aleppo marked a decisive military defeat for the Syrian revolution.

Today, we can only rejoice to see the regime’s forces compelled to flee from Aleppo: images of detainees freed from prisons, statues of the Assad family toppled, portraits of [Supreme Leader of Iran Ali] Khameini, [slain secretary-general of Hezbollah Hassan] Nasrallah, or [slain Iranian military official Qasem] Soleimani torn to shreds. But let’s be clear, there is no cause for hope for the future of Syria in the areas “liberated” by these military groups, be they jihadists or “moderates.”

This operation, though decided and coordinated in Syria, could not have seen the light of the day without the green light from Turkey, which itself seems to have been overwhelmed by the scale of the offensive. Let’s face it, few still believe that [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan is a friend of the Syrian people anymore. Turkey massacres Kurdish populations in Syria and elsewhere, organizes forced deportations of Syrian refugees, has been trying for years to normalize relations with Assad, and uses Syrian fighters as mercenaries for its geopolitical interests, not to mention repressing all internal dissent.

As for the Islamist groups, their power has been contested for years by the civilian population of the areas under their control. In 2024, large-scale demonstrations took place in Idlib to demand the departure of [Abu Mohammad] al-Joulani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Cham (HTC), the group that governs the enclave. Without popular legitimacy, HTC rules by force; it has failed to fulfill the hopes of the 2011 revolution. The Syrians who rose up against Assad’s tyranny and sacrificed so much to be able to live in freedom cannot live under groups like HTC in the long run.

A bitter and ambiguous joy, then. Much remains uncertain. The humanitarian consequences are likely to be catastrophic. The regime and its allies have stepped up attacks on the areas already controlled by the “rebels” as well as the areas they have just recaptured. Hospitals in Aleppo are already overwhelmed by the lack of resources and staff. We still don’t know what the position of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces will be. The only thing we can be sure of is the eternal return of the supporters of the “axis of resistance,” who, under the guise of opposition to Israel and western imperialism, will once again whitewash the butchers who have murdered and displaced our families and friends.

In the midst of all this, we are largely dispossessed of our revolution and the possibility of self-determination in our country. Between the foreign powers who play their influence games with our blood and the Islamist militias who speak only the language of weapons, for the time being, brute force and geopolitical calculations will decide our future. The situation is not excellent, but the fall of the regime remains the prerequisite for any change in the country. Again and again, the people want the fall of the regime.

Long live free Syria!
Gaza will live, Palestine will be free!
“They must all go” for a free Lebanon!

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The View from Rojava

A general overview of the main developments the past two days, contributed by internationalist anarchists in Syria.

The offensive of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) made a breakthrough in the first days toward east (Aleppo) and south (Hama) and slowed down on December 1-2. Assad regime forces appear to have recaptured the city of Hama and halted the advance of HTS towards Homs city. Russian air forces are carrying out an extensive bombing campaign, targeting HTS units but also civilian and military infrastructure in Idlib, Aleppo, and along the route of the HTS advance. There are reports of both civilian and combatant casualties. Jets belonging to the Assad regime have also carried out airstrikes, but on a smaller scale. In Aleppo, in the Kurdish district of Sheikh Maqsood, the residents have prepared for self-defense.

North of Aleppo, Şehba canton is been occupied by the [Turkey-backed] Syrian National Army (SNA). Thousands of people who have lived in refugee camps since the Turkish invasion of Afrin in 2018 are now being evacuated. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are organizing a humanitarian corridor to enable people to exit Aleppo and Şehba. No major clashes are reported between the SDF and SNA for now.

In some other regions of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES), artillery shelling and drone activity occurred, but no more than usual.

There are reports of the Iranian-backed militia Hashd Ash-Shaabi moving into Syrian territory in the Deir-Ez-Zor region in large numbers. In the same region, the SDF and the Deir-Ez-Zor military council are making moves to take some towns and villages under control.

The forces of the Islamic State that remain in the desert of central Syria have not been seen to make any major moves, but it is expected they will use the situation to the best of their ability.

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The SDF has called for a mass mobilization, asking for young people to join SDF and to be ready to repel the upcoming attacks on the liberated territory. It is a common expectation that the escalation will intensify and Turkish-backed factions will use the opportunity to attack the western regions of DAANES, such as Minbij.

At first, there were rumors about an attempted coup in Damascus; if such an attempt did happen, it seems to have quickly failed.

Egypt, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran have expressed support for Assad regime.

The Democratic Autunomous Adminsitration of North and East Syria, also known as Rojava, is in the middle of the new turmoil. The number of refugees arriving in the western cantons, counted together with the number of people who have been arriving from Lebanon over the past few months, could easily exceed 200,000 in the coming weeks.

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In the first days of the HTS offensive and the SNA push against Şehba, as well as the siege of Sheikh Maqsood, it is clear that Assad regime is in very difficult situation; it seems possible that it will collapse. However, any potential rule by HTS will not be stable and will not be able to resolve the pressing problems that the dictatorship of Bashar Al-Assad created and exacerbated for Syria. Nevertheless, the fall of Assad might open a window of possibility for change in the region, if Syrians—both those who remain in the country and those who will decide to come back after exile—manage to revive the original ideas of the Syrian revolution.

Major global powers like Turkey, the United States, and Israel will benefit from the HTS offensive. HTS fits all of their needs as a force that is opposed to Iran, Assad, and Russia. Given the chance to take up state-making if they win, following the Taliban model, it is possible that main actors in HTS will exercise their influence in a possible future new government. It is even possible that the aforementioned states might support HTS in taking power, seeing as they are not interested in the Syrian peoples independently deciding for themselves.

The fall of the Assad regime would be good for the DAANES in various ways, but it also poses major questions:

A) There is a serious danger that, freed of the necessity to fight against Russia and Assad, the Islamic State will take the opportunity to grow again, although they will also be in conflict with HTS.

B) We can expect that the United States will be increasingly invasive and manipulative if the DAANES becomes more dependent on the United States to protect it from a potential Turkish invasion.

C) Finding a new balance of forces in the region is sure to be chaotic and bloody, and it is not clear how it will conclude.

D) This is especially true as Turkey will be expanding the zone of its direct control much deeper into Syria.

E) Finally, the religious fundamentalists of HTS taking over western Syria will provoke sharp conflict with the revolutionary project in notheastern Syria, especially in regards to how that has changed the status of women in society.

The situation for Lebanon will be very difficult, as the country is going to be sandwiched between Israel and the HTS-controlled part of Syria. This might lead to the escalation of internal conflicts. Hezbollah will be left without a corridor via which to receive support from Iran.

In the regional context, to some extent, the DAANES represents a non-state solution based on self-governance and cultural, religious, gender, and ethnic autonomy. Still, it gets the least international support.

Revolutionary greetings!

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Update: December 6, 2024

This follow-up report reaches us from the same group of internationalist anarchists in Syria.

So many things are happening today, it is difficult to summarize. We will share some relevant updates, with the disclaimer that we are not an intelligence service but just some revolutionary anarchists following the situation from northeast Syria.

The main news today is the general collapse of the Syrian Arab Army (the army of the Syrian Arab Republic goverment, or SAA), with soldiers withdrawing from many different fronts, even publicly defecting in some areas.

Western Front

The advance of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (the main Islamist opposition coalition, HTS) continues. After taking control of Hama city, they are reaching the outskirts of Homs. Videos of attacks with Shaheen drones (HTS self-produced kamikazes) on SAA military posts in Homs are already spreading in social media.

As the HTS offensive moves south, they are also expanding east and west, not only fighting but also making agreements with local groups. In Mahardah, west of Hama, they negotiated the withdraw of SAA soldiers with the local Christian community; in Salamiya, east of Hama, they made an agreement with Ismaeli community.

Their western advance is entering desert territory, where the Islamic State (ISIS) has sustained their insurgency. It is not clear if ISIS insurgent cells will confront HTS or welcome them.

Eastern Front

SAA soldiers are withdrawing from positions on the outskirts of Raqqa, with the Syrian Democratic Forces (the military coalition of defense forces in Rojava, SDF) moving to capture those territories to prevent further activity of ISIS.

A similar scenario is playing out in the city of Deir Ezzor, where apparently there has been some coordination to secure the area with SAA soldiers before they left their positions.

At least one town situated 50 km south of Deir Ezzor, Al-quraya, appears to be under control of ISIS forces that moved in as SAA withraw.

SDF forces also took control of the border crossing with Iraq at Albukamal, which has been a very important crossing point for the coordination and supply lines of various Iranian proxy forces.

The SNA make a press statement announcing their operation against SDF in Manbij, urging civilians to stay away from military zones.

Southern Fronts

A new front has opened in the south as different rebel groups in Quneitra, Daraa, and Sweida began to take military actions against the crumbling SAA. Allegedly, they have created a common operation room to coordinate the attacks on the soldiers of the regime.

Several groups have been storming checkpoints, police commissaries, and military barracks In some areas. The SAA is reacting to those attacks with bombardments and intermittent clashes.

Videos of soldiers of SAA publicly defecting and joining local defense militias are spreading in social networks, specially among the Druze community of Sweida.

Also in the south—but on the eastern side—the battalion of Al-Tanf is also moving forward. Known as Maghawir al-Thawra, this group was part of the Free Syrian Army (the old name that was used as an umbrella for opposition groups against Assad), but after the emergence of ISIS, their main focus shifted to fight against the caliphate. They received training and weapons from US, as well as support in their operations against ISIS. In recent years, they had been blocking the routes of Iran weapon deliveries and making raids targeting Captagon drug smuggling groups. Now, for the first time, they left their local area of operations and are clashing with SAA forces in Palmyra.

Rumors

Allegedly, Israel is bombing chemical research facilities to prevent them from falling into the hands of the “Rebels.” Allegedly, Russia is evacuating parts of their air force stationed in Syria.

There are reports suggesting that a coup against the Assad government may be taking place in Damascus. There are also reports allegedly from Mossad (Israeli intelligence) indicating that Assad has left Syria, suggesting that he escaped to Iran.

Preliminary Evaluations

It is clear that no one has any faith in Assad’s government anymore. We feel confident announcing that this is the end of the regime. For many Syrians, today will be a day of celebration. After almost 13 years of war, misery, and exile, their dreams of a Syria without Bashar are coming true. In that sense, it is a day of celebration for us too.

But the end of the regime will probably be just the beginning of a new phase of conflict and instability, a very difficult one. Syria has become a battlefield where many military forces (both state and non-state) use violence to pursue their objectives without fear of the consequences. This includes the brutality of the Syrian regime and the Russian mass bombings of the civilian population, the horrific massacres of the Islamic State, and the genocidal and imperialist occupations of the Turkish Army and its proxies targeting the Kurdish people and the Rojava Revolution.

More than a decade of war and suffering has inflicted wounds that won’t heal with the end of the Assad dynasty, and the following day will probably witness more bloodshed and atrocities. The declarations of SNA operation against Manbij will probably be the beginning of a brutal war of occupation, as we already saw in 2018 in Afrin and 2019 in Serekaniye and Gire Spi. The future in Damascus still unclear, and the Islamism of HTS will soon start to reveal its true colors to the Syrian people. Whatever is shown on CNN, the people of Idlib have been suffering and protesting against the authoritarian rule of HTS for months.

Western powers will tacitly accept this apparently diluted version of Salafism, as they already did in Afghanistan. And these big changes will distract people from the massacres that Turkey perpetuates in Manbij, giving the rogue NATO member in the Middle East a free hand in exchange for their loyalty in other affairs that are of higher priority for Western agenda.

The revolution in Rojava is under threat, as always. Let’s celebrate the fall of the regime, but let’s keep building the new world we carry in our hearts.

Revolutionary greetings!

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If you want to support evacuees in northeastern Syria, you can do so here.